SPC Forecast Products
- SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 8 08:15:21 UTC 2010
- Wed, 08 Sep 2010 08:15:09 +0000
- No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 8 08:15:21 UTC 2010.
- SPC MD 1800
- Wed, 08 Sep 2010 07:04:06 +0000
- MD 1800 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 080703Z - 081000Z
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING FROM NEAR SAN-ANTONIO TO NEAR AUSTIN TO EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THIS
CORRIDOR.
AS OF 06Z THE CENTER OF TD HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL TX JUST
WEST OF BROWNWOOD AND IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE IN A SLOW NWD
DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TURNING MORE NNEWD. A CORRIDOR OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS FROM NEAR THE
SAN-ANTONIO AREA NWD TO NEAR STEPHENVILLE. RECENT TRENDS IN IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUD TOP COOLING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTH AND SERN TX WITH
UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PERSISTENT ZONE OF CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE CENTER AND PW VALUES
NEAR 2.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN
SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS TRAIN
NWD WITHIN THE BAND.
THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND OR WITH ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MOVING NWD
EAST OF THE LINE WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST.
..DIAL.. 09/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30169837 31329798 32299831 32579777 32359718 31279691
29899748 29019871 29309913 30169837
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- SPC Sep 8, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- Wed, 08 Sep 2010 05:52:47 +0000
- SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS
THE W COAST TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SEWD AND THE ERN LOW/TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SERN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...WHILE LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
EAST...MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE WILL
AFFECT OK AND VICINITY.
...OK AND ADJACENT N TX/SRN KS...
AS REMNANTS OF HERMINE SHIFT NWD ACROSS TX TOWARD WRN OK DURING THE
DAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
DESPITE WEAKENING...LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE REMNANT SYSTEM MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL WEAK/BRIEF ROTATION IN A FEW
STRONGER CELLS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS OK AND ADJACENT N TX DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WILL INCLUDE LOW /2%/ TORNADO
PROBABILITY -- WITH ANY THREAT LIKELY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.
...WRN SD/WRN NEB AND VICINITY...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF ERN WY AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NERN WY EWD INTO WRN
SD/WRN NEB AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY NERN CO AND FAR NW
KS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING -- THUS LIKELY LIMITING
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...40 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY EVOLVE -- WITH ASSOCIATED
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...UNTIL A DIURNALLY-STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTS IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2010
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- SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
- Wed, 08 Sep 2010 08:14:26 +0000
- SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...MOST
OF MD...D.C...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU.
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS
THE SRN SIERRAS. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
DECELERATE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE NRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ...
A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL
ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A ZONE OF LOWER RH VALUES DEVELOPING BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WRN NV AND A PLUME OF RICHER
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BECOME SHUNTED EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS.
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH...JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THE
OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS FAR SRN
NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO HIGHER FUEL
MOISTURE ON TUE.
...SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...MOST OF MD...D.C...ERN WV
PANHANDLE...NRN VA...
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THIS MORNING. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEPICTION OF RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY PEAK
HEATING AS TEMPERATURES HOLD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WLYS AT THE TOP OF A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20
MPH AND POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. GIVEN THAT
LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT PERSIST...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION
APPEARS WARRANTED.
..GRAMS.. 09/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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NOAA's National Weather Service Headlines
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- 5 Jan 2010 14:51:01 GMT
- NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami will issue watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas 12 hours earlier than in previous years. According to NHC experts, advancements in track forecasts are making it possible for forecasters to provide greater lead time.
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